IATA has expressed optimism that October's onset of Mexican president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum's administration will lead to eased tensions between the U.S. and Mexico over aviation.
However, Sheinbaum's stated policy goals leave little daylight between her and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, her predecessor and mentor.
Since January, the DOT has been weighing whether to finalize a tentative order that would end the antitrust-immune Delta-Aeromexico joint venture in late October. The department also suspended review of the antitrust immunity application of Allegiant and Viva Aerobus a year ago.
Both decisions relate to the aviation policies of the Lopez Obrador government. Most notably, after terminating work on what was to be a $13 billion Mexico City airport shortly after Lopez Obrador took office in 2018, the Mexican government placed new capacity restrictions on the existing airport, Benito Juarez, by reducing hourly flight operations from 61 to 43.
Mexico also terminated cargo service at Benito Juarez last September, forcing all cargo service to be moved to the new Felipe Angeles Airport outside of Mexico City, a pet project of Lopez Obrador that opened for commercial service in March 2022.
The DOT contends that capacity reductions at Benito Juarez violate the open skies air transport agreement between the U.S. and Mexico. Adherence to that agreement is a necessary condition for any partnership between a U.S. and Mexican airline to receive antitrust immunity.
Peter Cerda
In an interview last month, Peter Cerda, IATA's regional vice president for the Americas, said that Sheinbaum, who is a former climate scientist, has a very different mindset in terms of infrastructure and the environment than Lopez Obrador.
"She is going to be more receptive than the prior government in terms of assuring that air transport can grow sustainably, efficiently and reliably in the country, and that, we hope, will lead the U.S. government to have a more open approach," Cerda said. "Because at the end of the day, these two countries are very important trading partners, and air travel is very important to both."
Where does Sheinbaum stand?
Substantive differences on aviation policy between Sheinbaum and Lopez Obrador aren't apparent in Sheinbaum's campaign treatise, however.
The document, "100 Steps to Transformation," calls for an expansion of Felipe Angeles Airport but makes no specific proposals that would allow for the restoration of capacity at Benito Juarez that the DOT says is required.
The document also calls for expansion of Mexicana, the state-controlled airline based at Felipe Angeles that the Lopez Obrador government revived last December. And it calls for the consolidation of Felipe Angeles' role as a cargo hub.
Fabricio Cojuc
Fabricio Cojuc, a freelance aviation consultant based in Mexico City, also said that despite talk for years about rebuilding Terminals 1 and 2 at Benito Juarez, nothing is in the offing.
"There is no concrete evidence that these projects are going to take place," he said. "Especially with the administration finishing its term and a new administration that doesn't appear to have different ideas in mind."
So far, the capacity restrictions at Benito Juarez haven't forced U.S. airlines to reduce Mexico City operations, Cojuc said. But U.S. carriers also can't expand operations there, preventing entry by airlines such as Southwest, JetBlue and Frontier.
Cojuc said the presidential transition process in Mexico, as well as the similarities between the positions of Sheinbaum and the current government, means that the DOT will likely decide to act on its own, including finalizing its decision to terminate the Delta-Aeromexico antitrust immunity and calling for a renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico aviation treaty.
Cerda said it is IATA's job to be an intermediary between the two countries and that a particular emphasis is facilitating more capacity at Benito Juarez Airport.
"With both countries, we need to keep the dialogue going, especially from a technical standpoint," he said, adding that to facilitate that, neither government should be "quick to take action."