Going back to Maui

Before the devastating wildfires hit Lahaina on Aug. 8 last year, killing 102 people and
destroying thousands of homes, Kai Kanani, a sailing and snorkeling charter business
on the island of Maui, was on track for a
record year.

Like all of Hawaii, Maui enjoyed the fruits of a travel surge as the pandemic wound down. While those returning from international destinations were often still required to take a Covid test — one that might result in their getting “stuck” abroad — none was required for Americans returning from Hawaii. And visitors to the state seemed to have bottomless travel budgets: By the end of 2023, Hawaii’s 9.6 million visitors represented a 7% drop compared to 2019, but their spending was up 17.3%.

But according to the Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA), this year’s monthly visitation and spending both dipped year over year through June. While one reason is the strong dollar, which is suppressing travel from Japan, that doesn’t explain the drop from the mainland: Through the first five months of 2024, arrivals from U.S. states west of the Rockies — Hawaii’s largest source market — sunk 7.2% year over year, to 2.4 million.

As concerning as the state’s total visitor decline is, Maui’s drop is even more precipitous. Visitor arrivals to Maui plunged 23.8% year over year in the first half of 2024, and total visitor spend was off 24%.

For operators on the ground, those numbers hit hard. Business at Kai Kanani is down 20% to 30% year over year. And the operator is not alone. Bryan Kroten, Maverick Helicopters’ vice president of marketing, said that since the fires “we’ve seen a big reduction in demand” on Maui.

“It’s tragic and sad,” he said. “We’re hopeful that it turns around in the near future. We haven’t seen any trends of consistency to stabilize it. There are signs it’s getting better, but it’s just not there yet.” 

Both Kroten and David Taylor, marketing director at Kai Kanani, said their companies have focused on retaining their employees through the downturn. 

“We were fortunate to be able to keep all of our pilots and staff employed during these rough times,” Kroten said. 

Taylor said that he and his wife, the company’s co-owner, have spent their personal savings to keep the company afloat and not lay off staff. 

“And that’s twice, because we did the same thing with the pandemic,” he said, adding that they cashed in investments and index funds “just trying to keep people employed.”

“Everybody’s trying to hold on to people,” he said of other Maui businesses. “But there are limits. We need tourism to come back, because eventually you do reach the end.”

Scenes from a busier July

It was busy on Kaanapali Beach, just up the west Maui coast from Lahaina, when I arrived in mid-July at the Kaanapali Surf Club to meet owner Tyler Larronde.

A professional big-wave surfer (he was on the cover of Surfer magazine at age 17), Larronde was happy on that day that his surfboards were in short supply. A group of 17 students were using much of his inventory, and when I paddled out with Larronde to look for waves, I was among at least 10 other newbies taking instruction.

July had been busy, Larronde said, a relief after a long period of slow bookings since the fires. He’s aware that some of the business he’s getting this summer is due to Lahaina surf schools that had burned down, but he was also hopeful the spike was a harbinger of improvement in the tourism economy generally.

“We had a really slow June for some reason, and I thought July was going to be slow, too. But we’re keeping up with last year’s numbers. It seems OK,” he said. “After the fires, people got the message that they weren’t welcome here, which wasn’t true. We really need that tourist economy here to keep everything going. I feel like people are starting to hear that it’s open again, and they’re starting to come back. So I’m really hoping next year will be a good, solid year like the years before the fire.”

The week I was in Hawaii there were other signs that July, which has always been a peak month for Hawaii tourism, was showing signs of resurgence. 

It was busy at Skyline Hawaii, where the Haleakala Zipline Tour was fully booked on the day I went. And I ended up placing a takeout order from the Monkeypod Kitchen in Whalers Village after seeing how long the line was to get a table for dinner. The Hula Grill, where I had a reservation the next night, was packed, and a steady stream of passersby strolled along the beach taking in Kaanapali’s famed sunset. 

In South Maui, the Grand Wailea resort was also busy that week. Its Italian restaurant, Olivine, was full around dinner time on a Monday night, and a late-morning hunt for open pool chairs was futile. The lounge exclusive to guests on the Napua floor was full of families having breakfast in the morning and adults having cocktails in the early evening. Some hotel staff mentioned to me that occupancy was quite high.

But not all of Wailea was seeing that level of activity. Kai Kanani’s Taylor said the company didn’t experience the July pickup others have seen. “Typically, in July we would be sold out,” he said. “This July, we’ve struggled to maintain customers and had to cancel many trips just because of the low numbers.”

Taylor said he thinks some of the resorts are being hit even harder, percentagewise, and said it’s clear from the availability of restaurants in Wailea that they, too, are hurting.

“The fact that right now, midsummer, I can get a reservation at any restaurant in Wailea on the day of, no problem — is a problem,” he said.

Before the fires, he said, “it was really, really busy. We were having a banner year when the fires hit.”

In addition to local operators, those in the C-suites of major hotel brands are watching for signs that the improvement in tourism continues. 

Marriott International CFO Leeny Oberg said last week during the company’s Q2 earnings call that Hawaii overall was experiencing softness — in part due to the strong dollar’s impact on the Japanese market — and that Maui “is definitely still seeing the slowest recovery.”

“The tragedy in Lahaina has clearly had a huge impact on the island,” she said, adding that her team had visited Maui in July and that “there’s been fabulous progress, and it is really coming along well. But clearly still that island in particular is having a slower recovery than the other parts of Hawaii.”

Avi Mannis, executive vice president and chief marketing officer of Hawaiian Airlines, said that while Maui is seeing a steady return of visitors, it’s still not back to historical levels.

“Clearly, there was a surge in demand for Hawaii overall, and Maui did very, very well during the years immediately post-pandemic,” he said. “We’re coming off of a bit of a high for North America travel to Maui, but I think, post-fires, it certainly went well below 2019 levels.”

Changing the messaging 

Many stakeholders believe the solution to getting tourism back to Maui is more and better messaging. 

Taylor said that people in tourism on the island are “begging” the state and county to get the word out that Maui is open and “still Maui.”

In a statement, the Four Seasons Resort Maui said, “The community continues to feel the economic aftermath of the misinformation and mixed messages on whether it’s appropriate to visit the island, which has made recovery a slower build for its residents.”

The HTA, however, says it has been trying to do just that. In late March, it launched “Makaukau Maui,” which translates to “Maui Is Ready,” a campaign to let people know that the island is open and welcomes visitors to come back. 

“When we look at some of the drastic drops that we saw in the months right after the fires, we’ve come quite a long ways,” said Ilihia Gionson, the HTA’s public affairs officer. “We fully acknowledge that there’s more work to be done.”

He said the HTA is engaged with the Maui community to be responsive and to be respectful of where it is in terms of healing, while also trying to optimize the tourism contributions it needs.

Gionson said the yardsticks by which Hawaii measures tourism success have also changed, following a course that started before the pandemic.

In 2019, when the state experienced its highest arrivals number ever at 10.4 million but a decline in average visitor spend, Gionson said the HTA heard calls from the community to “re-examine this.” As a result, the HTA shifted its focus from maximizing arrival numbers to optimizing  spending.

In addition, the HTA wants to attract visitors who “make meaningful contributions to our community,” he said, whether by prioritizing eating at local restaurants that work with Hawaiian ranchers and farmers to uplift the agricultural sector or encouraging people who take time from their vacation to participate in a volunteer project. “There are multiple ways that visitors make that contribution to the Islands.” 

But several people on Maui said that the hotel prices had gotten so high during the immediate post-pandemic era, when people were willing to pay them, that now they aren’t only keeping some people from visiting Maui but are deterring them from spending as much once they’re on the island. Gionson said the HTA is aware of these concerns. 

“Price is pretty high on the list of the reasons folks who are considering the Hawaiian Islands ultimately choose a different destination for their vacation,” he said. “We understand that, we’re aware of it. Ultimately, it’s going to be up to those operators to adjust their prices to a point that works for them and fulfills their particular business goals.”

Spending local has been a big part of the HTA’s visitor education message for a while, he said, and is very intentionally at the center of its newest campaign, “The People. The Place. The Hawaiian Islands.”

“To have the best Hawaii experience, you have to engage, and a great way to engage is by supporting small local businesses,” Gionson said. 

He said travel advisors, whom he praised for their support of Maui, can continue to help by encouraging visitation. 

“In a disaster, when something big and traumatic happens, it’s really easy to ask folks to hold off coming for a little bit,” he said. But “you say that once, and it resonates around the world.”

It’s much more difficult, Gionson said, to invite them to return, and it takes more effort. 

“Continue to let folks know that it’s a great time to visit the Hawaiian Islands. It’s a great time to visit Maui,” he said. “There’s lots to see and do. Of course, we’re all still crushed by what we lost in the fires, but we acknowledge that and continue on. And part of that is welcoming folks back to this home that we love so much.”